Behind the scenes of Almaty discussions – What’s going to occur? – 2024-05-15 12:59:51

Writer: Elchin Alioglu

Supply: Development

When will peace be established within the South Caucasus? When will the ultimate peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia be signed?

The method geared toward signing the ultimate peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues, albeit with difficulties, issues and obstacles.

The subsequent stage of the method was the assembly and negotiations of the international ministers of the 2 nations – Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan – in Almaty.

Official details about the assembly could be very temporary and scarce.

Let’s recall the assertion issued by the Ministry of Overseas Affairs of Azerbaijan on the problem: “The ministers welcomed the progress on delimitation and the agreements reached on this regard. The ministers and their delegations continued the dialogue of the provisions of the draft “Bilateral Settlement on the institution of peace and interstate relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia”. The events agreed to proceed the negotiations on the problems that also stay open. Inside the framework of the go to, the ministers met individually with the Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Overseas Affairs Murat Nurtleu expressed his gratitude to the Kazakh facet for the possession”.

The assertion is sort of optimistic.

Based on some prospects, the ultimate peace settlement may very well be signed by the tip of this yr. Though the possibilities of these prospects aren’t excessive, they exist.

Formally, Baku and Yerevan are the authors of the constructive manifestation of the intention to resolve the issues which were ready to be solved for many years. The delimitation and demarcation of the traditional state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the whole liberation and return of our villages which can be nonetheless beneath Armenian occupation, the signing of a peace settlement, the institution of diplomatic relations between the states, the restoration of transport communications and logistics routes and the opening of latest ones, and so forth. points are ready to be resolved.

Direct negotiations between the 2 events with out the involvement of mediators and moderators, with out worldwide organizations, states and politicians, have already confirmed to be an efficient choice.

After the institution of diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there might be no want for mediation mechanisms to make sure contacts, communications and discussions between the 2 states.

As for the potential and particularly the prospects of the Almaty stage of the negotiations, there may be nonetheless no mandatory floor for excessive optimism. The reason being the activation of revanchist forces in Armenia, the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the handing over of 4 villages to Azerbaijan, and the calls for to instantly cease the method of demarcation and delimitation of the traditional state border.

It’s the first time since Armenia grew to become an unbiased state that the Armenian Apostolic Church (EAK), the “Karabag clan” of Armenians initially from Karabakh led by former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, and the main organizations of the Armenian diaspora in international nations have come collectively. they got here

Their objective is to oust the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and make sure the return of the “former” within the identify of the “new authorities”.

It is for that reason that Robert Kocharyan is the actual chief of the “protest actions” in Armenia.

Though it appears paradoxical at first look, the political institution of France is fascinating in N. Pashinyan’s departure from energy, together with Russia. The signing of the ultimate peace settlement, the demarcation and delimitation of the conditional state border don’t correspond to the official plans of Paris relating to Armenia.

Yerevan’s direct negotiations with Baku and the conclusion of a peace settlement sooner or later deprive French President Emmanuel Macron of the chance to affect the processes within the South Caucasus by Armenians. The geopolitical plans of Paris in our area are clear: the stress within the area needs to be fixed in sporadic activations, the geopolitical alternatives of Turkey and Azerbaijan needs to be restricted, and Irevan ought to stay completely depending on Paris.

Emmanuel Macron understands that the signing of the peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not going to solely result in progress within the Baku-Iravan, but in addition Ankara-Iravan course, the Trans-Caspian transport hall will develop, stability will improve within the South Caucasus, and finally optimistic geopolitical results might be realized on the whole Eurasian house.

Specifically, the assertion of the top of the Armenian Overseas Ministry, Ararat Mirzoyan, “we’re able to work by discussing points associated to move communications, together with the small print of the peace settlement,” significantly anxious the facility facilities which have recognized plans for Yerevan.

As a result of these points are the nuances that Yerevan doesn’t wish to talk about till now beneath numerous excuses. If the issue of transport communications between Baku and Yerevan is solved, the significance of the Trans-Caspian transport hall route will improve many occasions.

In fact, the scenario with the peace settlement just isn’t easy. The doc needs to be in such a format, content material and type that it’s positively accepted by the society, info and political house of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In fact, the signing of the settlement in Azerbaijan might be appreciated.

As for Armenia, the scenario is diametrically reverse: the revanchist forces which can be turning into energetic within the neighboring nation and the “coalition” fashioned in opposition to Pashinyan don’t wish to signal a peace settlement in any case.

Nonetheless, the signing of the peace settlement, the opening of the borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey and the institution of regular relations are the details that decide the event of Armenia.

However the present scenario in Armenia has not been resolved but.

Because of this, it’s potential that the details of the draft peace settlement might be introduced slightly later, so as to not make the scenario in Yerevan much more tense, and to not give carte blanche for political demagoguery to the revanchists and the church, the Kocharyan-Sargsyan duo, and teams financed from exterior.

As for negotiations, discussions with any direct contacts between Baku and Yerevan are a step ahead.